NIFTY 03-11-2009

Hello Freinds,

                          First of all sorry for not writing the blog for last 2 days. but i got many inquiry that whats the problem and it made me really happy to know that so many people are looking at the blog. i got around 120 hits per day and increasing daily.

NIFTY 23-11-2009 :  Nifty as expected have breached the major support line. I am thinking market still has some downsized left in this fall. WE are entering in the crucial Support area from the past.  4580-4520 is a great support for the market. Avoid taking any fresh short position in the market right now. We will advise when is the right time to go short on the market.

CNX BANKX

CNX Bankx :  RBI Announced it’s credit policy day befor yesterday but the market was in total panic and did not bother to look at any news. It reminds me that when market is bearish it discounts all the bullish news and still goes down and when the market is bullish, it will discount all the bad news and still go up. Yesterdy the market was on see-saw ride. At this moment after a big fall i wanted to find out which stock made hammer becuase this would be a great pattern at the current market scenario and i came across CNX Bankx. The Index is forming a classical hammer at a great trendline touch. I like to go long on the violation of the top of the hammer 8680 with S.l of 8410 with minimum target of 9150-9200.

Market timming from 9.00AM to 5.00PM

Market timming from 9.00AM to 5.00PM

Hi all,

            I really wanted to get your feedbacks ont SEBI allowing the stock exchanges to change thier timmings from 9.00 AM to 5.00 PM . Can you all share your ideas with us. Is this going to help the market or is it encouraging more intrday players. Long term investment would be only a word in dictonary. Please leave your comments.

NIFTY Outlook 26-10-2009

Nifty Outlook : The market last week did as we expected. Going forward the market is still looks in the hands of bear. People its a war out there this week. Bulls will try to regain thier lost kingdom and bears are in bushes for almost 8 months. Bears did tried to attack the bulls in between but lost.  On Friday the market made a shooting star(although i wished i could see the shooting star at the top of the rally) but it neverthless showed bulls are now tiered of running this rally and slowly the bears will take over. The market is in range of  5181 to 4968. Any close below 4968 level will start trigering sell calls for the analysts.  Any close below 4900 will trigger intermediate correction. If breach below 4900 is confirmed the market will easily slide down to 4750.

 

ACC (Head and Shoulder Pattern)

ACC (500410) :   As per our market expectation that market is looking weak . I came out with list of stock which are the weakest stock for this big rally that we witnessed. I ran this test on what i call as External Relative Strenth Index (ERSA). It showed me the list of top 15 Laggards for the top traded counter.

Security Name	ERS	5 dy ago	21 d ago	60 d ago	125 ago	250 ago
SATYAM COMPUTER	0	0	1	0	0	8
RELIANCE COMMUNI	1	2	5	4	16	14
SUZLON ENERGY	2	1	0	2	0	5
BHARTI AIRTEL LIMITED	3	3	21	24	67	65
MAHANAGAR TELEPH	4	4	7	46	37	27
RELIANCE CAPITAL	5	5	2	20	13	45
MOSER BAER (I)	6	8	6	9	6	21
VSNL	7	9	24	16	87	93
GRASIM INDS	9	16	74	89	39	36
SUN PHARMACEUTIC	10	7	3	10	69	99
AMBUJA CEMENT	11	10	41	29	47	43
NATL ALUM – NEW	12	12	13	13	17	97
HIND LEVER	13	14	15	59	64	94
ABB	14	13	10	18	14	30
ACC LTD	15	15	64	74	68	52

In this list , ACC caught my eyes and when looked at the chart pattern, it showed what we have conventinally studied the head and shoulder pattern. The breach of neckline is already done. The stock is stopping at 200Day WMA. As per the head and shoulder count the target comes around 595-585. So look out for any close below 760 it can easily pull ACC to our target level.

Nifty Outlook for 23-10-09

Nifty :Today we expect the market to show some kind of buying coming in. Currently I am reading book by John Murphy called Technical Analysis of Financial Market . The moe you make your analysis the more you will have time to trade. Yesterday we anticipated the market may fall below the trendline which it did, but fortunatly for bulls it was without volume. Today we expect the market to deep down to 4930 and see some buying coming in.The market has to close above 4900 under any curcumstance. If Nifty closes below 4900 then this would signal 1st level of weakness in the market. So watch out for 4930 and close below 4900.

Nifty Outlook 22-10-2009

Nifty :  Yesterday i read this word in  John Murphy’s book “Technical analysis of Financial Market ” on page 4. It had one line which says ” A trend in motion is more likely to continue than to reverse”. It was an adaption of Newtons First Law. This statement so apt for the current market condition that we get so worried if the market slides down a bit and sell all our holding thinking the market is going to crash. Booking profit is not crime but not understanding the market dynamics and trading is crime. Yesterday without using any sophisticated mechanism and hi fi indicator but just purely on trendline that market will take support around 5050-5060 and we can easily see the market making low 5051 and closing at 5063. Can it be coincidence ,yes it may be. We technical analysts are not fortune tellers but we study our subject and try to come out with systematic guess about the market movement. The market may seem to bounce back from this level but heavy volume yesterday gives me some not so good looking picture for atleast 2-3 days . I expect the market to breah the trendline and nicely move to our support area of 4930 which is a mjoe lookout for any change in trend reversal.

Nifty

Its Inverted Head and Shoulder Time

Brigade Enter (532929) : I have learnt in my technical analysis that longer the patterns takes time to make the major the move will be. AS the market is in Bull Run , i usually run my query on 52Week High Stock . When i ran the query Brigade Enter cam as a total surprise to me that stock is at 52week high it is still at the base of the pattern. I looked at the chart going from daily to weekly to monthly and one pattern was emerging clearly that was Inverted Head and Shoulder. Although the head is not like the head we usually see in our classical book examples but it satisfies all the criteria of Inverted Head and shoulder. The stock has stiff neckline at 140-142 levels. The bottom formed was Rs31 and the stock yesterday closed at 138.15 . SO if i do simple Technical calculation so my target should come near about Rs250, which i think is ambitious target. The main thing to learn from this pattern is the volume on the Right Hand shoulder. It is said to pull someone down just push him of the cliff but to throw someone up there should be lot of help from everybody. As we can see from the chart the Right hand of the Inverted Head and shoulder is accompanied by heave volume . We can look into this counter once it breached 140 levels during intraday. The stock can be bough with cross above 140 with s.l of 112 with target price of 250 ( Risk/Reward = 18/110)

Inverted Head and shoulder for Brigade

Why Shipping is moving up ?

Today I am also studying charts of shipping industry and they all showed some kind of strenth building up. I did searched for some news for the same but unable to find one. I remember a famous saying in technical analysis which says ” Prices leads and news follows ” so i am asuming some good news about Shipping industry is on the card.

GE Shipping : The stock yesterday breached down folloing trendline with good volume shows inherent strenth of the counter. The stock has breached long Term MACD Oscillator and we have seen whenever this happens a strong rally follows it.  But considering the market condition Beakout tends to fail so advise my friends to strictly follow the stop loss around 275-280 range with target of  385  ( Yesteray it closed at 300).

GE Shipping looking to make 5th Wave

PSU Walked and talked together

PSU Stocks : Yesterday we highlighted  fort the short term trading PSU Stocks HPCL and BPCL. Today HPCL just touched our trigger price @ 355 and then moved upto 372.75 increasing +7rs. I think next time onward i have to be bit careful while giving stop loss. The stock is on our way to touch our target of 385 around .The stock was up in down market.

HPCL 1Followup Chart

Stock for Short Term Trading : I really take my neck out and want to give you a buy call on second run stock.

Jubilant Organic : The stock is looking good on for short term trading for 7-10 days . The 264.50 has retraced back to 225 levels in classical corrective ABC pattern ( although ABC can be debated upon Elliot Wave follower ) but i look for short term weakness in strong counter.

Jubiliant Organic

 The stock is also trading at support level of upward sloping trendline. This trendline has supported this stock 4 times. We can also see increased activity in todays market. ( *Note : The company is announcing its Quaterly Result Today ) . So trader are advised to be cuation .